BULLETIN 005 "THE MATH OF GREAT DISASTERS"

This Bulletin contains the second Tanstaafl Disaster Guide by CCR titled "The Math of Great Disasters" exploring the numbers, statistics and probabilities of various disasters.

 

The Math of Great Disasters
By Chad C. Rediker, narrated by T.A.C. Cat

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction: The Numbers Never Lie
   Why survival starts with subtraction — of assumptions, illusions, and luck.
2. Chapter 1: Disaster by the Numbers
   How probability, risk, and delay shape every catastrophe.
3. Chapter 2: The Cost of One Mistake
   Why most collapses begin with a single overlooked variable.
4. Chapter 3: Death Tolls & Denial
   How the numbers get buried — and who wants them to stay that way.
5. Chapter 4: Predicting the Next Big One
   What models got right, why no one listened, and how to read the warnings.
6. Chapter 5: Cascade Calculus
   Understanding compounding failures and the math of systemic breakdown.
7. Chapter 6: Survival Geometry
   Distance, elevation, time — and why the map is deadlier than the monster.
8. Chapter 7: Triage & Tactical Ethics
   The survival math behind who gets helped — and who doesn’t.
9. Chapter 8: Prepper Math 101
   Water, food, fuel, gear, and weight — by the numbers, not the panic.
10. Chapter 9: The Economics of Disaster
    Why prevention is cheaper than rebuilding, and who profits from collapse.
11. Chapter 10: Extinction Probability
    The final formula — how likely we are to vanish, and how to shift the odds.

Introduction: The Numbers Never Lie

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“Every great disaster begins with bad math.”

Too slow to act.
Too confident to prepare.
Too dependent on systems that were already cracked.

That’s how it always starts.

We think we’re safe because we haven’t done the equation.
But disaster doesn’t care about feelings — it cares about fractions.

• One minute late
• One backup short
• One assumption too comfortable
• One percentage point of extra pressure

It’s all math.

📊 The Problem: We're Emotionally Wired, Not Mathematically Trained

Humans evolved to feel fear, not calculate risk.

We overestimate danger when it’s loud and sudden (explosions, crashes).
We underestimate danger when it’s slow and statistical (viruses, warming oceans, financial collapse).

This is why people panic after the sirens — and laugh before the warnings.

🧮 Why This Book Exists

This isn’t a textbook.
This is your ops briefing for Earth.

Inside, we’ll break down:

• The math behind chaos
• The equations of survival
• The formulas no one teaches until it’s too late

Each chapter is a tactical dive into how numbers shape every disaster — and how you can use them to get out alive.

🔢 Why Math Matters More Than Hope

• Hope doesn’t carry water.
• Hope doesn’t stop bleeding.
• Hope doesn’t fix broken bridges, radios, or lungs.

But math can.
Because math is:

• Predictive
• Repeatable
• Free of ego

If you know how to read the numbers — you don’t just survive.
You lead.

So, grab your backpack.
Check your gear.
This is not the end of the world.

It’s just the beginning of understanding it.

— T.A.C. Cat, Systems Check Complete

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 1: Disaster by the Numbers

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“Humans hate math. Disasters don’t care.”

Disasters are not just accidents.
They are equations that went unsolved — or worse, ignored.

A pandemic isn’t just a virus.
It’s transmission rate × population density × response delay.
A wildfire isn’t just flames.
It’s wind speed × fuel load × evacuation time.

The truth is, every great disaster has a math problem underneath it.
Most people never see it. Until it’s too late.

❗Defining the Core Terms

Let’s start with some simple disaster math vocabulary:

Term	Meaning in Disasters
Probability (P)	How likely something is to happen
Risk	Probability × Consequences
Expected Value	What you’ll probably lose over time
Black Swan	Rare, unpredictable event with massive impact
Margin of Error	The gap between what might go wrong and what will

Disaster isn’t a coin toss. It’s stacked odds, usually misunderstood by the people in charge.

🎲 The Probability Trap

Humans are bad at understanding probability. That’s not an insult — it’s biology.

• You feel safer flying than driving (even though cars kill more people).
• You ignore earthquake risk because it hasn’t happened yet.
• You assume the power grid will be up tomorrow — just like today.

But probability is brutal.
It doesn’t care how you feel.
It just keeps running in the background, waiting.

TAC Cat’s Rule: “If something has a 1-in-100 chance per year… expect it in your lifetime.”

 

 

 

💣 Understanding Risk

Let’s say:

• A chemical plant has a 2% annual chance of catastrophic leak
• If it happens, 50,000 people could die
• Expected yearly risk = 0.02 × 50,000 = 1,000 expected deaths/year

Even though it hasn’t happened yet, the math says it’s already killing people.

People ignore risk until it becomes loss. Then they ask, “Why didn’t anyone warn us?”

📈 The Cost of Delay

Delaying action adds exponential risk.

Time Delay	Consequences
10 minutes	Miss evacuation window
1 day	Supplies run out
1 week	System collapse (e.g. Katrina)

Mathematically, most disasters are time-sensitive exponentials.
They go from “manageable” to “uncontrollable” faster than people expect.

 

🔍 Disaster Examples by the Numbers

Pandemic Math (COVID-19)

• Basic Reproduction Number (R₀): ~2.5
• Without action, 1 infected person → 406 in 10 transmission cycles
• Delay of 2 weeks = millions more infected

Flood Math (Hurricane Harvey, 2017)

• Rainfall: 60 inches over 4 days
• Area flooded: 13 million people
• Total damage: $125 billion
• Prevention spending before? ~$100 million

Wildfire Math (Paradise, CA – 2018)

• Fire speed: 80 football fields/minute
• Evacuation delay: 20 minutes
• Result: 85 deaths, total destruction

 

 

 

 

 

 

⚠️ T.A.C. Cat’s Disaster Formula

Disaster = (Trigger Event) × (System Fragility) × (Delay)²

Each factor alone is survivable.
Together? They compound.

• Trigger: Earthquake
• Fragility: Unreinforced buildings
• Delay: No emergency response
  → Collapse, chaos, and death

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Every disaster has a math problem baked inside it.
• Probability, risk, and delay determine survival — not just luck.
• Most people fail because they misjudge the math.
• You don’t need to be a genius. You just need to be honest about the odds.

“If you understand the numbers, you beat the disaster. If you ignore them, you become one.”

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 2: The Cost of One Mistake

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“There’s no such thing as just one mistake in a disaster.
There’s only the first one.”

Some disasters begin with lightning.
Some begin with lies.

A wrong calculation.
A missed inspection.
A silent alert system.

That’s all it takes.
Just one.

And the cost?
Not measured in dollars.
Measured in lives, land, and years.

⚙️ The Law of Compounding Mistakes

Mistakes don’t sit still. They multiply.

Initial Error	What It Becomes
Faulty valve	Chemical leak
Ignored radar blip	Mid-air collision
Outdated evacuation map	Dead-end escape
Overloaded server	Nationwide blackout
Undiagnosed infection	Global pandemic

A single overlooked variable can cause a cascade of suffering.

🧠 The Cognitive Bias Behind Catastrophe

Most catastrophic “mistakes” were visible in advance.
But human brains dismiss them with thinking like:

• “It’s never failed before.”
• “They would’ve told us if it was dangerous.”
• “It’s probably nothing.”

That’s optimism bias.
It works in casinos. It kills in reality.

T.A.C. Cat’s Debrief: “The first domino doesn’t warn you. It just falls.”

📉 Real Disasters Triggered by a Single Misstep

Chernobyl (1986)

• One test conducted under unsafe conditions
• Safety systems turned off to “speed up results”
• Reactor explodes, releasing radioactive fallout across Europe
• 4,000+ deaths (likely more), 350,000 displaced

The mistake?
Prioritizing procedure over physics.

Titanic (1912)

• Iceberg warnings ignored by wireless operators
• Captain maintained full speed at night
• Too few lifeboats for passengers
• 1,500+ lives lost

The mistake?
Trusting reputation over readiness.

Space Shuttle Challenger (1986)

• Cold temperatures weakened O-ring seals
• Engineers warned, but were ignored by managers
• Shuttle exploded 73 seconds after launch
• 7 astronauts killed, live on national TV

The mistake?
Dismissing expert warnings to stay on schedule.

📊 The Cost of Delay

Sometimes the mistake isn’t what you do — it’s what you don’t do.

Time Lost	Cost Multiplier	Example
10 minutes	×10 casualties	Camp Fire Evacuation (2018)
1 hour	×100 damage	Bhopal Gas Leak
1 day	×1,000 infections	COVID spread in Wuhan, NYC
1 week	×Billions in losses	Katrina levee delay (2005)

Disasters don’t wait for you to decide.
They compound while you hesitate.

🔢 T.A.C. Cat’s Equation of Regret:

Cost of Inaction = (Known Risk) × (Delay) × (Ignored Warnings)

This is why post-disaster commissions always sound the same:

“There were signs. They just weren’t acted on.”

🔁 Patterns in Catastrophic Mistakes

Pattern	Examples
Overconfidence in tech	Titanic, Challenger, Fukushima
Disregarding local knowledge	Hurricane Katrina
Cutting corners to save money	Bhopal, Grenfell Tower Fire
Rushing for political optics	COVID-19 reopening delays
Miscommunication or silence	Maui Fires (2023), 9/11

📦 T.A.C. Cat’s Checklist: Mistake Prevention Tactics

✅ Double-check high-impact decisions
✅ Reward whistleblowers, not silence them
✅ Plan for failure, not perfection
✅ Don’t trust the system — test the system
✅ If one thing controls everything? Back it up.

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Most disasters start small — with a single overlooked decision
• The cost of that one mistake multiplies the longer it’s ignored
• Systems fail when one part is over trusted, under-tested, or unprotected
• If you want to survive: Audit the details. Assume something is broken.

“The first mistake is human. The second one is systemic. The third one is fatal.”

 

 

CHAPTER 3: Death Tolls & Denial

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“What’s the real body count?”
Answer: Usually higher than they tell you.

Counting the dead after a disaster should be simple.

But it’s not.

Because disasters are messy.
Bodies go missing. Records disappear.
And the people in charge?
They’re often more worried about blame than truth.

So, what gets reported…
Is rarely what really happened.

⚰️ The Death Count Dilemma

Stage	What Happens
Impact	Chaos. Panic. Missing persons skyrocket.
Official Reports	Underestimated, cautious numbers
Political Spin	“It’s not that bad” claims emerge
Independent Reviews	Death toll revised upward — often years later
Final Truth?	Rarely known. Often buried — literally.

TAC Cat’s Truth: “Real disasters keep killing long after the headlines fade.”

🧮 Why Are Death Tolls So Inaccurate?

• Missing Data: Bodies not recovered, undocumented victims
• Delayed Effects: Deaths from starvation, injury, infection after impact
• Political Pressure: Leaders fudge numbers to avoid panic (or lawsuits)
• Media Fatigue: Reporters leave before the real damage is done
• Geographic Confusion: Rural, poor, or conflict zones undercounted

🔍 Case Studies in Underreporting

Puerto Rico (Hurricane Maria, 2017)

• Official death toll (initial): 64
• Revised estimate after independent study: ~4,645
• Why the difference? No power = no death certificates. Delayed care = slow deaths.

The Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961)

• Official toll: Not acknowledged for decades
• Modern estimates: 15–45 million deaths
• Reason? Government suppression, political terror, lack of records

COVID-19 (2020–2023)

• Global reported deaths: ~7 million
• Estimated excess deaths: 15–20 million+
• Hidden causes: hospital overload, underreporting, data manipulation

📊 Chart: Reported vs Actual (Estimated) Death Tolls

Disaster	Reported	Estimated Actual	Notes
Chernobyl (1986)	31	4,000–90,000+	Long-term radiation effects
Bhopal Gas Leak (1984)	3,000	20,000+	Deaths continued for years
Haiti Earthquake (2010)	160,000	250,000+	Lack of infrastructure
COVID (global)	7 million	15–20 million+	"Excess mortality" metric

When the numbers don’t make sense… dig deeper.

 

 

 

🧠 The Psychology of Denial

Why do we want the death toll to be lower?

• To protect the system’s image
• To avoid panic
• To maintain “business as usual”
• To keep people trusting authority

But the result?

False comfort now = more deaths later.

🧮 TAC Cat’s Death Toll Formula:

True Impact = Reported Deaths + Delayed Deaths + Indirect Deaths + Suppressed Data

Category	Examples
Reported Deaths	Direct impact (crush injuries, drowning)
Delayed Deaths	Infections, untreated injuries, suicide
Indirect Deaths	Starvation, no meds, toxic exposure
Suppressed Data	Mass graves, conflict zones, censored stats

If your survival plan only responds to initial fatalities,
you’re not preparing for the full disaster.
You’re preparing for the press release.

📦 T.A.C. Cat’s Field Guide: Detecting a Lying Death Toll

✅ Is the number suspiciously round? (e.g. “Exactly 100”)
✅ Are journalists blocked from disaster zones?
✅ Are deaths still rising weeks later?
✅ Do locals report more missing than officials admit?
✅ Does the math contradict the media?

When in doubt, trust the people on the ground, not the podium.

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Death tolls are usually lowballed — by mistake or on purpose
• The real disaster includes indirect, long-term, and hidden deaths
• Survivors often die later, quietly, without a headline
• The most dangerous number in a disaster?

The one that lets people relax too soon

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 4: Predicting the Next Big One

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“You can’t predict the future?
Tell that to the people who did — and got ignored.”

Disasters aren't random.
Most have patterns, signals, and models.

But here's the problem:

🧠 Humans ignore them.
📉 Politicians downplay them.
💸 Budgets cut them.

By the time the “Next Big One” hits?
Someone already ran the numbers.
Someone was already screaming into the void.

🔍 What Is a Disaster Model?

A model is just a mathematical map of possibility.

It can be:

• An earthquake risk chart
• A hurricane forecast cone
• A pandemic R₀ transmission curve
• A cyberattack probability heatmap
• A nuclear war simulation

But models don’t predict exact events.
They estimate risk zones, impact scales, cascading failure paths.

“Models don’t give you certainty. They give you a chance to prepare.”

🧮 T.A.C. Cat’s Rule of Prediction:

Model Accuracy = Input Quality × Update Frequency ÷ Denial

Garbage in = garbage out.
Stale data = surprise collapse.
But the biggest killer?

Denial.

🗂️ Famous Predictive Failures (a.k.a. Ignored Warnings)

Disaster	Warning Model	Ignored Why?
2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami	NOAA + Japanese studies on subduction zones	No warning system in place
COVID-19 Pandemic	Multiple pandemic simulations (e.g. Event 201)	Dismissed as unlikely
Hurricane Katrina (2005)	FEMA models predicted levee breach	Budget cuts, bureaucratic delay
Fukushima Nuclear (2011)	Earthquake/tsunami risk known	Seawall underestimated tsunami height
Maui Fires (2023)	Fire risk maps published	Infrastructure unprepared

🧠 Why Disaster Predictions Fail

Reason	Explanation
Normalcy Bias	“It’s never happened here.”
Economic Pressure	“Too expensive to fix now.”
Political Optics	“We don’t want to cause panic.”
Technical Complexity	Decision-makers don’t understand the math
Overconfidence	“Our system can handle it.” (It can’t.)

📈 Good Models, Bad Decisions

A model is only as good as its interpretation.

Just like weather forecasts:

• A 70% chance of rain doesn’t mean you will get wet.
• But if you don’t bring an umbrella, and it pours?
  That’s your math failure — not the model’s.

Disasters work the same way.
The map exists. But people refuse to move.

T.A.C. Cat’s Tactical Math Tip:
“Every risk model is a map to survival — if you read it before the crash.”

📊 The Math Behind Modern Predictions

Earthquakes

• Based on tectonic strain, historical patterns, ground surveys
• Probability, not timing: e.g., 30% chance of 7.0+ in CA within 30 years
• Models are improving — but most people don’t retrofit

Hurricanes

• Forecast cones = probabilistic path predictions
• Intensity models now use satellite heat mapping
• Problem: people focus on the line, not the zone

Pandemics

• Spread models use R₀, mobility data, immune response curves
• The sooner data comes in, the better the curve estimate
• But misinformation spreads faster than the virus

 

🛠️ T.A.C. Cat’s Survival Plan from a Model

1. Know the risk zone you’re in (earthquake map, fire forecast, floodplain)
2. Find the fail points (power grid, evacuation route, comms network)
3. Run the "If it happened tonight..." test
4. Model your exit. Don’t wait for permission.

“Forecasts fail for people who wait.
They succeed for people who prep.”

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Most major disasters were predicted
• Models don’t fail — humans fail to act
• A good model gives time — the most valuable prep resource
• The difference between survival and regret?
  Who looked at the model — and who trusted it

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 5: Cascade Calculus

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“The first crack is quiet. The collapse is loud.”
But the math? That’s been whispering the whole time.

A cascade disaster isn’t a single blow.
It’s a chain reaction — triggered by one failure, amplified by systems that weren’t ready.

One wire shorts.
One switch fails.
One decision delays response by 10 minutes.

And suddenly?
Hospitals go dark. Cities burn. Refugees run.

Welcome to cascade calculus — the math behind systemic collapse.

📉 The Cascade Effect — Defined

Cascade Effect:
A small disturbance triggers a series of increasingly severe failures across interconnected systems.

It’s not just bad luck.
Its bad design exposed by pressure.

T.A.C. Cat’s Theorem:
“The system was fragile long before it broke. The cascade just proved it.”

 

🔗 Real-World Cascades, by the Numbers

⚠️ Fukushima (2011)

• Earthquake (9.0) → Tsunami (15m)
• Flooded generators → Cooling failure
• Meltdown of 3 nuclear reactors
• 154,000+ evacuated, $200B in damage

Trigger: Earthquake
Collapse Path: Power → Cooling → Radiation → Evacuation chaos
Missed math: Seawall 5 meters too short

❄️ Texas Freeze (2021)

• Record cold → Natural gas flow froze
• Power grid collapsed
• Water systems shut down
• Food chains stalled
• 246+ deaths, $195B in damages

Trigger: Weather
Collapse Path: Grid → Water → Roads → Public services
Failure Point: No winterization despite model forecasts

 

 

💸 2008 Global Financial Crisis

• Housing defaults → Mortgage-backed security collapse
• Banks fail → Credit dries up
• Stock markets crash → Recession
• 8 million U.S. jobs lost

Trigger: Subprime loans
Collapse Path: Housing → Banks → Markets → Jobs
Missed math: Risk models ignored fat-tail losses

🔢 TAC Cat’s Cascade Formula:

C = (F₁ × I) + (F₂ × D) + H

Where:

• F₁ = First failure (trigger event)
• I = Interconnectivity factor
• F₂ = Secondary failure (from dependency)
• D = Delay multiplier
• H = Human error (panic, denial, misinformation)

The longer the delay? The bigger the crash.
The more connected the system? The faster it spreads.

 

 

🧠 The 5 Laws of Cascade Disasters

1. The Trigger Is Never the Worst Part
• Katrina’s storm wasn’t deadly. The levee breach was.
2. Dependencies Multiply Risk
• No power = No water = No communication
3. Delays Increase Damage Exponentially
• A 5-minute delay in evacuation = 10x casualties
4. Unseen Links Create Surprise Failures
• Internet down → ATMs stop → Gas stations close → Evacuation fails
5. People Don’t Understand Systems Until They Fail
• You don’t realize how many things rely on one transformer… until it explodes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

🔺 The Cascade Pyramid

     🔺 Trust Collapse

    🔶 Social Unrest

   🔶 Resource Shortage

  🔷 Infrastructure Breakdown

 🔷 Communication Failure

🔘 Trigger Event (quake, storm, hack)

If you can stop the cascade near the base (comms, power)?
You can prevent the collapse at the top.

If not?
You lose time, trust, and control — fast.

🧪 Case Study: Pandemic Cascade Math

COVID-19 wasn’t “just a virus.”

• Infection → Lockdowns → Economic Crash
• School closures → Childcare failure → Workforce collapse
• PPE shortages → Frontline deaths → System overload
• Conflicting messages → Trust collapse → Mass misinformation

The cascade wasn’t biological. It was social, economic, emotional — and predictable.

The virus spread like a pathogen.
The panic spread like fire.

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Cascades are math problems in motion
• Every system is vulnerable to compound failure
• If you understand where the links break — you can prepare a workaround
• And if you act early?

You don’t just survive. You stop the collapse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 6: Survival Geometry

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“Survival isn’t a mindset.
It’s a measurement.”

When disaster hits, it doesn’t care about your zip code.
It cares about how far, how high, and how fast.

Tsunamis don’t knock.
Wildfires don’t wait.
And if your plan depends on guessing where “safe” is?

You’re gambling with geography.

Let’s do the math.

📐 The Geometry of Disaster

Three spatial factors determine survival:

Factor	Why It Matters
Distance	How far you are from danger or shelter
Elevation	Whether water or smoke flows toward you
Time/Speed	How long it takes to move — or not

In short:

If you’re too close, too low, or too slow — you’re a statistic.

🌊 Tsunami Survival

The Wave Equation:

• Water travels at 500–600 mph
• Time between earthquake and impact: 5–30 minutes
• Safe elevation: 100+ feet, or 2 miles inland

Your Elevation	Survival Odds
Beach level	❌ Almost none
50 ft hill	⚠️ Partial risk
150 ft cliff	✅ High chance

T.A.C. Tip:

If the water disappears from the beach? You’re already in the red zone. Run uphill. Don’t film.

🔥 Wildfire Geometry

The Fire Zone:

• Fire spreads 1 football field per 5 seconds in wind
• Ember showers can land 1 mile ahead
• Heat kills before flames arrive

Distance from Ignition	Time to Escape
< 1 mile, uphill	⚠️ Minutes (or less)
3–5 miles, flat terrain	✅ 20–40 minutes (if packed)
10+ miles, windy conditions	❌ You’re still at risk

Fire climbs faster than you can run. Plan escape routes downwind and downhill.

🌪️ Tornado Survival (Shape Matters)

• Tornado paths average 250–500 yards wide
• Speed: 30–60 mph (but can vary)
• Survival zone: underground or reinforced interior

Shelter Type	Survival Rating
Wood-framed house	❌ High risk
Interior hallway	⚠️ Moderate risk
Basement or storm shelter	✅ Highest safety

Geometry tip: Put as many walls between you and the wind as possible.

📍 Floodplain Calculations

Flood water:

• Rises fast — up to 10 feet in 30 minutes
• Only 2 feet can float a car
• 6 inches can knock over an adult

Elevation matters more than wealth.

If you live in a "100-year flood zone," it doesn’t mean it happens every 100 years.
It means you have a 1% chance every year — and it’s cumulative.

Elevation Above River	Flood Risk
0–10 ft	❌ Very High
10–25 ft	⚠️ Variable
25+ ft	✅ Safer (but check drainage)

🚗 Evacuation Radius Math

In a full-scale city evacuation:

• Average speed on jammed roads: 5–15 mph
• Time to move 100,000 people: 8–14 hours
• Time before disaster hits? Often <3 hours

If you’re not gone before the rush, you may not go at all.

🧮 T.A.C. Cat’s Survival Geometry Checklist

✅ Know your elevation (above sea level and terrain)
✅ Map all exits in 3 directions, not just one
✅ Calculate “Escape Time” from home, work, school
✅ Pre-measure your 2-minute gear grab zone
✅ Keep copies of local hazard maps printed and waterproofed

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Most disaster deaths happen because people don’t understand space, distance, or time
• Your survival odds are determined before the sirens — by where you live, how fast you act, and what you’ve already mapped
• Guessing is not a strategy.

Measurement = Life

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 7: Triage & Tactical Ethics

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“In a real disaster, you don’t get to save everyone.
You get to choose who dies last.”

Triage isn’t cold.
It’s mathematical compassion — when resources are limited, and decisions can’t wait.

That means:

• Who gets the only helicopter?
• Who gets surgery first?
• Who stays behind so others can live?

This is the hard math of survival.
And if you’re not prepared for it now — you’ll freeze when it matters most.

🏥 What Is Triage?

Triage is the act of prioritizing aid based on:

1. Chance of survival
2. Urgency of need
3. Resource availability

It is not fair.
It is not democratic.
It is designed to save the most lives possible — not every life.

T.A.C. Cat’s Field Code:
“Triage doesn’t ask who deserves it. It asks who benefits.”

🚑 The Color Code of Crisis (START Triage System)

Color	Status	Treatment Priority
🔴 Red	Critical, needs immediate care	First
🟡 Yellow	Serious but stable	Second
⚫ Black	Deceased or un-saveable	Not treated
🟢 Green	Minor injuries	Last

In a mass casualty event, one medic may have to sort 100 victims in minutes.

They don’t get second guesses.

🔢 Triage Math in Motion

Scenario: Collapse in an urban subway

• 100 injured
• 3 Medics
• 6 ambulances
• 2 trauma centers

Red: 22 people
Yellow: 30 people
Green: 40 people
Black: 8 confirmed deceased

You have 45 minutes before tunnel floods with gas.

Who do you carry? Who do you leave?

There is no “right.” There is only fast, informed judgment.

⚠️ The Ethical Equations

1. Utilitarian Logic:
   Greatest good for the greatest number
   → Triage by survivability, not sympathy
2. First Come, First Served:
   Often ignored in disaster settings (too slow, too emotional)
3. Social Value Bias (dangerous):
   → Saving VIPs, politicians, or responders first — may or may not be justified

These decisions often get judged years later, by people who weren’t there.

🧮 T.A.C. Cat’s Reality Formula

Survival ≠ Worthiness
Survival = Resources × Time ÷ Pressure

Those who survive:

• Were helped first
• Needed less to stabilize
• Had someone ready to make the call

🧪 Disaster Case Study: Haiti Earthquake (2010)

• 300,000 injured in first week
• 1,200 U.S. medics deployed
• Most hospitals were destroyed

Result:

• Triage in parking lots
• Amputations done with basic tools
• Some patients prioritized by likelihood of infection over injury severity

No one was evil.
They just had one generator and 200 people bleeding.

🧭 Tactical Ethics: What Should You Do?

If you’re first on the scene:

✅ Stabilize bleeding (pressure, elevation, tourniquet)
✅ Sort by alertness, breathing, and visible trauma
✅ Mark victims (cloth, tape, even chalk) for responders
✅ DO NOT let emotion override logic
✅ Stay calm — people mirror your energy

Triage doesn’t mean heartlessness. It means operational compassion.

🔁 Hardest Part: When You Can’t Save Everyone

Your family. Your team. Your neighbors.

At some point, disaster makes you choose.

• Who gets the last water bottle?
• Who fits in the truck?
• Who walks, and who waits?

The time to make those decisions is now — not when the fire’s already at the door.

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Triage is survival math — brutal, fast, necessary
• Saving lives often means not saving everyone
• Emotion without structure kills more people than cold logic ever has
• The real ethical choice?

Train, prepare, and act before triage is even needed

 

 

 

CHAPTER 8: Prepper Math 101

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“People say: ‘I’ll be fine.’
I ask: ‘Show me your numbers.’”

Prepping isn’t paranoia. It’s planning with a calculator.

You don’t need a bunker or a billion dollars.
You need clear math, simple gear, and a repeatable system.

• How much water does one person need?
• How many calories per day?
• How long will your flashlight last?
• Can your bag actually carry what you think?

Let’s break it down.

🎒 The Rule of 3s (Survival Priorities)

Need	Time Without It
Air (oxygen)	3 minutes
Shelter (in cold)	3 hours
Water	3 days
Food	3 weeks
Mental resilience	3 seconds (seriously)

T.A.C. Cat’s Rule:
“Pack for the rule of 3s — not your favorite snack.”

💧 Water Math

• 1 gallon per person per day
• 0.5 gal for drinking
• 0.5 gal for hygiene/cooking

Group Size	3-Day Water Need
1 person	3 gallons
4 people	12 gallons
4 + pet	~14 gallons

Tip: Carry filters or tabs — you can’t pack a lake.

🔋 Power Math

Device	Power Need (avg.)
Smartphone	5–10 Wh/day
LED flashlight	2–5 Wh/day
Hand radio	1–2 Wh/day
GPS or headlamp	3–6 Wh/day

🔋 1 basic power bank = ~2 phone charges
🔆 Solar panel (10–20W) = 1–2 phone charges per sunny day

If your survival plan requires full signal and screen time? It’s already dead.

🍽️ Food Math

Survival Calorie Need	Per Day
Adult (light activity)	~1,500–1,800
Adult (high stress/movement)	~2,500–3,000
Children (varies)	1,000–2,000

✔️ Shelf-stable options:

• Rice, lentils, oats, peanut butter
• Freeze-dried meals (check calorie counts — some lie!)
• Energy bars: look for fat + carbs + protein

🎯 Goal: 6,000–9,000 calories total for 3 days per person

📦 Bag Weight Calculations

Category	Target Weight
Ideal Bug-Out Bag	~15–20% of your body weight
Max Survival Load	25–30% (short-term only)

A 150 lb person should carry:

• Comfortably: ~22–30 lbs
• Emergency max: ~40 lbs

⚠️ Most over-pack and never train. Then the bag becomes a burden, not a tool.

T.A.C. Tip: “If you can’t sprint 50 feet with it, you’re not bugging out. You’re bugging down.”

📅 Fuel & Time Math

• Car fuel: 1 gallon = ~20–30 miles (varies)
• Generator fuel: 5 gallons = 8–12 hours (moderate load)
• Propane: 1 tank = 8–10 meals or 1–2 hot showers

⛽ Always keep:

• 2–3 days of fuel
• Stabilizer for long-term storage
• Siphon kit (for emergencies)

🧰 The “Go Now” Gear Inventory

Category	Essentials
Water	Filter, tabs, 1L bottle
Food	6k–9k calories, 3 days minimum
Shelter	Poncho, tarp, emergency blanket
Fire/Heat	Lighter, ferro rod, fire cubes
Tools	Multitool, knife, duct tape
Light/Power	LED headlamp, backup batteries, charger
Medical	Trauma kit, meds, painkillers, gloves
Comms	Radio, whistle, local map
Hygiene	Wipes, toothbrush, compact soap
Defense	(Local laws apply) pepper spray or better

🔢 T.A.C. Cat’s Survival Formula:

Preparedness = Gear × Planning × Practice

Without practice? Your bag is just heavy luggage.
Without a plan? It’s a shopping list.
With both? It’s your second chance.

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Prepping isn’t about hoarding — it’s about having the math right
• Most people overestimate what they can carry and underestimate what they’ll need
• If you don’t know your bag’s weight, your calorie count, or your water plan?

You’re packed for denial, not survival.

 

CHAPTER 9: The Economics of Disaster

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“Disaster is expensive.
But the bill isn’t always paid in dollars.”

Every flood. Every fire. Every viral outbreak.

They all come with a cost curve — and most of it comes after the first strike.

But here’s the real shocker:
Preventing disaster is always cheaper than cleaning it up.
Yet governments don’t act, companies cut corners, and people roll the dice.

So, who pays?
Usually not the ones who ignored the warning.

💸 Disaster Economics 101

Disasters have three major cost layers:

1. Immediate Losses
• Property, infrastructure, human life
2. Secondary Costs
• Medical care, displacement, lost income, supply chain disruption
3. Long-Term Fallout
• PTSD, joblessness, political instability, rebuilding debt

T.A.C. Cat’s Law of Cost:
“The longer you wait to act, the more zeros get added to the bill.”

🧾 Real Disaster Cost Comparisons

Disaster	Estimated Cost	Could It Have Been Prevented?
Hurricane Katrina (2005)	$170B+	Yes — levee reinforcement was underfunded
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–23)	$10–15T global	Yes — early response delay = trillions lost
Texas Freeze (2021)	$195B	Yes — grid failed due to lack of winterization
Camp Fire, CA (2018)	$16.5B	Yes — PG&E ignored maintenance needs

💡 Preventive cost for Katrina levees? ~$2B
💡 Global prep for pandemics? <$50B/year

 

 

 

 

💰 The Cost of Inaction

System	Neglected Investment	Disaster Impact
Power Grid	Outdated by decades	Cascades, blackouts, fires
Public Health	Underfunded for years	COVID overwhelmed hospitals
Urban Planning	Cheap zoning, no drainage	Cities flood in 2 hours
Forest Management	Suppressed fires, no burns	Megafires with no buffer

The Math is brutal:

$1 in prevention = $6–$10 in recovery saved

💼 Disaster Capitalism: Who Profits?

Some people don’t mind collapse.
In fact, they build business models around it.

Entity	How They Profit
Private contractors	Rebuild contracts, emergency bidding
Insurance companies	Raise rates, deny claims
Corporations	Disaster relief funding, PR boosts
Politicians	Declare states of emergency = grab power

TAC Cat's Red Flag:
“If someone profits every time the world breaks, they’re not going to stop it from breaking.”

📉 Who Pays the Real Price?

Group	Hidden Costs
Survivors	Job loss, medical bills, trauma
Small businesses	40–60% never reopen after disaster
Renters/low-income	Rarely insured, slowest to get aid
Schools/children	Education disrupted, lifelong effects

Sometimes, the poorest zip codes take the biggest hit — while the richest fly out.

💸 Budget vs Body Count

Disasters often reflect the math of priorities.

Scenario	Budget Cuts	Outcome
Maui Fire (2023)	Emergency alerts not upgraded	No sirens activated; dozens dead
California Wildfires	Defensible space program defunded	Towns burned to ash
Pandemic prep (pre-COVID)	National stockpile gutted	No PPE, ventilator shortages

The body count rises when the budget falls.

📊 The Prepper’s Investment

Item	Cost Range	Lifespan/Value
Basic bug-out bag	$100–$300	3–5 years of readiness
Water filter	$20–$100	Thousands of gallons
Solar charger	$50–$150	Infinite power (sunlight pending)
Emergency food	$200–$600	25+ years shelf life
Radios/Comms	$30–$100	Real-time survival coordination

Total: ~$500–1,000 = Peace of mind for years

💡 Less than one ER visit.
💡 Less than one rent check.

 

 

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• The economic cost of disaster is massive — and rising
• Prevention is always cheaper than cleanup
• Many disasters are driven not by nature, but by neglect
• Those who profit from chaos won’t warn you before it happens

So don’t wait for the invoice. Start investing in survival now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 10: Extinction Probability

As narrated by T.A.C. Cat

“You’re not just prepping for a storm.
You’re prepping for species survival math.”

Disasters destroy homes.
Great disasters destroy cities.
But there’s a class of crisis above all that —
Extinction-level events.

Pandemics that rewrite DNA.
AI that shuts down the grid.
Asteroids, nukes, solar flares.

They sound like fiction — until the numbers say otherwise.

Welcome to the math of humanity’s last breath.

🧨 The Known Killers

Here are the Top 5 Threat Classes that could end civilization — or you:

Threat	Extinction Risk Factors
Super volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)	1 in 10,000 per year – global winter, famine, collapse
AI Misalignment	Unknown – uncontrolled intelligence or economic takeover
Engineered Pandemics	1 in 1,000 per year – CRISPR-edited viruses, hard to detect
Nuclear War	1 in 100 chance in a century – large-scale retaliation chain
Climate Feedback Loops	Active now – drought → fire → CO₂ → feedback → collapse

T.A.C. Cat’s Warning:
“The most dangerous threats are the ones we created ourselves.”

📊 The Math of Extinction (Fermi’s Filter)

Why don’t we see advanced civilizations in the galaxy?

One theory:
Civilizations hit a wall. A collapse point. A statistical kill switch.

That wall could be:

• A war
• A plague
• An environmental collapse
• Or… simply denial at scale

This is called the Great Filter.

So far, we haven’t passed it.
But the math says it’s coming.

🧠 The Human Overconfidence Equation

We believe:

• “Technology will save us.”
• “Someone else is watching the sky.”
• “There’s always time.”

But here’s the truth:

Crisis	Known For Years?	Prepared For It?
COVID-19	✅ Yes	❌ No
Wildfire Megastorms	✅ Yes	❌ No
Cyber Infrastructure Collapse	✅ Yes	❌ No
Global supply chain fragility	✅ Yes	❌ No

If we keep thinking we’re invincible —
The planet will correct us.

 

 

 

 

 

🧮 Extinction Probability Formula

X = (P × I) ÷ (R × T)

Where:

• P = Probability of Trigger
• I = Impact (population, system-wide)
• R = Readiness level
• T = Time to respond

The lower our Readiness and Time, the higher the X-risk.
Right now? Humanity’s global R & T are both critically low.

🧰 The Future Prepper Profile

Survivors of the next century will be:

Trait	Why It Matters
Adaptive	Systems will break. You’ll need to reroute fast
Mobile	Climate refugees = new normal
Mentally resilient	No AI, no newsfeed, no rescue? Still focused
Technically literate	Off-grid tools, radio, filtration, code
Ethically grounded	Trust will be rarer than water

You won’t just need gear.
You’ll need judgment, network, and reason.

🌍 Final Numbers to Remember

• There are 8 billion humans right now.
• Fewer than 5% have any disaster prep.
• Less than 0.1% could survive a full-system breakdown.
• We only get one Earth.

So the real question isn’t “Will disaster come?”
It’s: “Will you be ready before it does?”

🧠 Summary: What You Need to Know

• Civilization is a fragile system sitting on historic risks
• Extinction threats are not sci-fi — they are statistical realities
• Individual preparation isn’t fear — it’s future math
• The best time to prepare was 10 years ago.

The second-best time? Now.

🎖️ T.A.C. Cat’s Final Briefing: The 4 Laws of Future Survival

1. Redundancy = Freedom
   Don’t rely on one source of anything — power, food, truth.
2. Trust Is the First Casualty
   Build your filter. Verify your sources.
3. Comfort Is the Enemy
   If your life never tests your limits — neither will your plan.
4. Preparedness Is a Moral Act
   The more ready you are, the more people you can save.

 

💬 What This Book Was Really About

Not just math.
Not just disasters.
But decisions.

The world is full of warnings, risks, systems, signals — and chances.

The numbers are clear.

The future belongs to the prepared.

You know the math now.
Go do something with it.

— T.A.C. Cat, Final Ops Log

Written by Chad C. Rediker

 

TANSTAAFL PRESS

T.A.C. Cat [2025] Chad C. Rediker. All rights reserved.

                

 

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